Preparing for Abrupt Hazard Events with a Gamified Volcanic Eruption and Supply Chain Disruption Scenario 

Iceland recently marked the 15th anniversary of the eruption of its Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which erupted in 2010 and sent volcanic ash across Europe. The volcano’s impact brought Europe’s aviation system to a standstill with more than 100,000 canceled flights.   

Depending on the size and scale of an eruption, volcanic ash can blanket large areas of farmland, smother crops, and even make the soil less fertile while causing even further-reaching effects on global food security. The ash from the 2010 eruption not only coated and destroyed local Icelandic farmers’ agricultural fields, but the mass flight cancelations left farmers as far away as Kenya with rotting vegetables and thousands of workers were laid off.  

Eyjafjallajökull’s eruption was relatively small by global standards, yet contemporary volcanic eruptions provide important clues for researchers studying the vulnerability of interconnected global systems like aviation and food supply chains during a crisis—and how to strengthen them ahead of future hazards.  

Larger eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, spewed out enough sun blocking material to shade and cool the planet, leading to larger and longer-term climatic impacts. More recent research has shown that climate change may make the impact of volcanic eruptions wider by spreading ash further—causing more disruption and potential for a cool down in the climate. 

In the International Science Reserve’s latest “serious game,” the Volcanic Eruption Game, we put scientist in the driver’s seat to play out what they would do during a hypothetical volcanic eruption. In the game, a volcano erupts in Indonesia and injects dangerous levels of sulfur into the atmosphere.  

The game asks players to be decision-makers in crisis. Players must consider how the eruption will disrupt food supply chains around the world and how to reduce the scenario’s most harmful impacts. By playing this game, the players are able to explore how to respond to an abrupt hazard event like a volcanic eruption, and how their choices may change based on shifting situations, incomplete information, and risk assessments. 

The International Science Reserve, now a network of scientists more than 20,000 scientists and scientific institutions, uses games to simulate real-life scenarios or drills that can improve the capacity to collaborate, communicate, and make informed decisions in high-pressure crisis situations. Gamification through ISR’s suite of “serious games,” makes the experience of learning crisis preparedness skills more engaging for participants, encouraging wider participation, and contributing towards a culture of readiness. 

Ready to try it out yourself? Play the ISR’s Volcanic Eruption Game! Earn badges, climb the leaderboard, and be recognized as a top player and top contributor in a global scientific community. 

A hydrologist talks about working together to curb crises 

Dr. Kaushlendra Verma, a hydrologist from India and ISR community member, currently serves as a Post-Doctoral Fellow at Météo-France, in Toulouse. His research endeavors contribute significantly to our understanding of global hydrological systems and their dynamics, particularly in the context of climate change.  

Driven by a profound interest in monitoring and effectively managing freshwater resources, Dr. Verma employs innovative techniques such as remote sensing and satellite altimetry to collect crucial data on the topography of surface water and water level changes. His efforts aim to deepen our understanding of Earth’s intricate water dynamics and chart a course towards sustainable management of our planet’s most vital resource. 

Dr. Verma recently spoke to the International Science Reserve about his research and how the ISR can be useful for cross-border collaboration on crisis. 

Can you tell us a little bit more about your research?  

At Météo-France, my research focuses on understanding how climate change impacts Earth’s water dynamics, particularly regarding freshwater resources. Using advanced techniques like remote sensing, we’re uncovering new insights into the behavior of water-bodies, including rivers and lakes, under changing climatic conditions.  

One fascinating aspect we are discovering is the intricate relationship between precipitation patterns and hydrological processes, shedding light on how climate variability affects the availability and distribution of freshwater resources impacting ecosystems and human livelihoods at the global scale. 

Population growth, industrialization, and climate change are all pushing the boundaries of the global freshwater supply. What role do hydrologists play in helping decision-makers understand these risks?

Hydrologists play a crucial role in providing valuable insights to decision-makers regarding freshwater management and sustainability. Through meticulous analysis of vast datasets and sophisticated modeling techniques, we assess the risks associated with freshwater scarcity and help devise effective mitigation strategies.  

Whether it’s optimizing water allocation, developing resilient infrastructure, or guiding international agreements on trans-boundary water resources, hydrologists provide the scientific foundation for informed decision-making at both local and global levels, ensuring the long-term viability of freshwater resources for future generations. 

Recent events underscore the urgency of scientific insights in water management. In Sudan’s Arbaat Dam collapse (August 2024), extreme rainfall led to catastrophic failure, displacing communities and highlighting vulnerabilities in water infrastructure. Similarly, the 2024–2025 floods across Southeast and South Asia have affected millions, emphasizing the need for accurate hydrological forecasts and adaptive management strategies. 

Beyond disasters, hydrologists also support proactive crisis prevention. In case of Cape Town, South Africa, which faced a severe water crisis in 2018 due to a combination of drought, population growth, and inadequate water infrastructure. Hydrologists were instrumental in analyzing rainfall patterns, groundwater levels, and reservoir capacities to forecast water availability accurately. Their research enabled policymakers to implement water-saving measures, such as rationing and infrastructure upgrades, to avert a catastrophic water shortage. 

Furthermore, in response to the ongoing drought crisis in the Western United States, hydrologists have been actively involved in water resource management efforts. With shrinking snow-pack, dwindling reservoir levels, and increasing competition for water among various stakeholders, hydrologists employ advanced modeling techniques to forecast water availability, assess drought impacts, and develop adaptive strategies. By collaborating with policymakers, hydrologists help inform decisions on water allocation, conservation measures, and long-term planning to mitigate the effects of drought on ecosystems and communities. 

The UN recently stated that we are “careering towards a global water crisis,” with a 40% shortfall in freshwater resources predicted by 2030 and called for increased global cooperation. What are the benefits to collaborating more across borders, and across disciplines to better manage freshwater systems? 

Collaboration across borders and disciplines holds immense promise in addressing the complex challenges of freshwater management on a global scale. For example, the flow of water in some rivers may be governed by agreements between countries. However, monitoring this flow can be problematic for both technical and economic reasons. By fostering international cooperation, hydrologists can share expertise, data, and best practices, facilitating more holistic and effective approaches to freshwater conservation and management. 

Moreover, interdisciplinary collaboration amplifies the impact of hydrology research by integrating insights from diverse fields such as ecology, economics, and governance. For instance, the Nile Basin Initiative brings together hydrologists, economists, and policymakers from riparian countries to address shared challenges in water management. By combining hydrological modeling with socioeconomic analysis and stakeholder engagement, interdisciplinary teams develop inclusive water governance frameworks and equitable allocation mechanisms that promote cooperation and mitigate conflicts. 

In another example, the Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia spans multiple countries and supports millions of livelihoods. Hydrologists from countries like China, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam collaborate to monitor water flow, sediment transport, and ecosystem health in the basin. By sharing hydrological data and conducting joint research, these scientists facilitate informed decision-making on dam operations, flood management, and sustainable water use, fostering cooperation and reducing the risk of conflicts over water resources. 

Why did you join the International Science Reserve, and why would you encourage others to join? 

My decision to join the International Science Reserve (ISR) stems from its invaluable role as a platform for fostering global scientific collaboration and knowledge exchange. ISR provides a unique opportunity for researchers from diverse backgrounds to come together, share insights, and collaborate on addressing pressing global challenges.  

By joining the ISR, researchers gain access to a vast network of experts, resources, and opportunities for collaboration, enabling them to amplify the impact of their research and contribute meaningfully to advancing scientific knowledge and addressing global challenges. 

Using genomic sequencing to treat disease in the Horn of Africa 

Souad Elmi is an ISR community member and public health microbiologist who works in the National Reference Laboratory at Peltier General Hospital in Djibouti. She has experience in medical laboratory and public health initiatives, including infection control, epidemiology, antimicrobial stewardship, malaria, and tuberculosis (TB).  

She is passionate about using genomic sequencing to identify and treat the complicated diseases that plague her region in the Horn of Africa.

The International Science Reserve spoke to Souad about her goals to achieve health, sustainability, and well-being for all people. 

How did you get started in public health?  

My journey into public health and infection control began with my work as a medical laboratory scientist, where I witnessed the devastating impact of infectious diseases, particularly TB, HIV, which are complicated by antimicrobial resistance. Seeing patients suffer from preventable and treatable illnesses due to gaps in diagnostics and public health interventions motivated me to specialize in public health microbiology. My passion for health equity and disease prevention grew as I realized the urgent need for improved surveillance, diagnostics, and sustainable solutions to control infectious diseases in vulnerable populations, especially in the Horn of Africa. 

What projects are you currently working on?

Currently, I am working on molecular diagnostics related to TB in the National Reference Laboratory at Peltier General Hospital in Djibouti. My research focuses on drug resistance patterns and genomic sequencing to track TB strains and improve treatment strategies. Additionally, I am involved in antimicrobial stewardship initiatives, aiming to combat antibiotic resistance through laboratory-based surveillance and policy recommendations. These projects are crucial in strengthening disease control efforts and informing public health interventions in the region. 

Djibouti has one of the higher rates of tuberculosis in the world, but in recent years, the country has made efforts to reduce that number and close the gap. What have you seen as successful practices on this public health issue?  

Djibouti has made significant progress in TB control through enhanced case detection, rapid molecular diagnostics, and patient-centered treatment approaches. The introduction of GeneXpert technology, which allows for the detection of specific genetic material in a biological sample using a technique called nucleic acid amplification, has improved early detection of drug-resistant TB by reducing the time to acquiring diagnostic results from weeks to hours. Community-based interventions have increased treatment adherence by patients. Strengthening laboratory capacity and integrating TB care with HIV services have also played a vital role in reducing TB incidence. However, investment in genomic surveillance, social support programs, and health system strengthening is essential to further close the gap. 

What more could scientists be doing to work together on persistent public health issues that you study, like malaria and tuberculosis?  

Scientists need to foster greater collaboration in genomic research, data sharing, and interdisciplinary approaches to tackling infectious diseases. Strengthening regional laboratory networks, expanding access to sequencing technologies, and integrating artificial intelligence for disease surveillance can significantly enhance early detection and response efforts. Additionally, partnerships between researchers, policymakers, and local communities are crucial to developing sustainable solutions that address both biomedical and social determinants of health. Investing in capacity-building and mentorship programs will also empower young scientists in resource-limited settings to contribute meaningfully to public health advancements. 

Why did you join the ISR, and why would you encourage others to join too? 

I joined the ISR because I believe in the power of scientific collaboration to address global health crises, particularly in regions facing resource constraints. Being part of an international network allows me to engage with experts from diverse fields, access cutting-edge research, and contribute to global preparedness efforts for emerging diseases. I encourage others to join ISR to collaborate on innovative solutions, share expertise, and strengthen scientific resilience in the face of complex public health challenges. Together, we can drive impactful change and improve health outcomes worldwide. 

Scientists and experts can help prepare for record shattering heatwaves

Last year, the world shattered a record we never should have hit: our warmest year ever.  In response, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres remarked that we are in an “era of global boiling,” as he called for swift action on human-induced climate change.  So far in 2024, global temperatures have continued to break monthly records as prolonged heatwaves are impacting millions of people worldwide, from India to Mexico. 

Researchers from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also found that for the average person on Earth, there would be 26 additional days of extreme heat this year, compared to if climate change was not happening. In certain regions of the world, that number reaches as high as an extra 120 days.  

Urban residents, who represent more than 55% of the world’s population, are particularly at risk from these warmer temperatures due to urban heat islands (UHIs), which occur when a city’s infrastructure, like roads, parking lots, and rooftops, absorb and remit heat more than natural landscapes like forests. In effect, UHI makes urban environments hotter than rural locations. 

The greenhouse gas emissions that humans have already emitted into the atmosphere means that extreme heat is not going away anytime soon, even if we rapidly reach climate targets and zero emissions. That’s why, as a network of scientists and experts concerned about crisis, we can be thinking of new ways to collaborate to inform, prepare, and reduce harm to humans and ecological systems during extreme heat waves.  

The Limits of Heat on the Human Body 

Climate change is already affecting human health. There are risks to human bodies from extreme heat, particularly for residents in cities, and within communities that are more vulnerable to its adverse impacts.  Extreme heat is more dangerous for children, older adults, and outdoor workers – particularly those who do not have labor protections to keep them safe. 

Of particular concern to human health is when heat and humidity remain high in combination, especially at night. It becomes difficult for the body to rest, relax, and stabilize – and that can put the body under significant stress.  

More and more experts are calling for decisionmakers to gauge upcoming risks to the public by using a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) reading versus temperature alone. WBGT is measured through temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover. Tropical and coastline cities, for example, are already reaching critical “wet bulb” temperatures, where the human body cannot cool down through its normal sweating process because sweat is not able to evaporate in high humidity. Dry heat is cooler for the body, for this reason. 

Experts define 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) as the upper limit of WGBT for young and healthy people. During India’s recent heatwave, the WGBT reached at least 100 degrees (37.8 degrees Celsius), making the chances of heat exhaustion, stroke, and even death much higher for vulnerable populations. 

Cities in China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, the Arabian Peninsula, and the African Sahel are among the highest risk zones for dangerous levels of WGBT.  Jacobabad, Pakistan is often called one of the hottest cities on earth and has experienced at least four extreme wet bulb events in recent years. Many cities lack the infrastructure or resources to deal with extreme heat, in some cases because in the past they did not need it. 

Understanding the Toll of Extreme Heat 

Unlike hurricanes, earthquakes, or tornadoes, heat disasters often go unseen by decisionmakers because the public health impacts often happen inside homes or go undiagnosed by health professionals as heat related.  

In the US, the National Weather Service (NWS) cites that heat has been the deadliest form of extreme weather over the last decade. But many researchers believe current counts of heat illnesses death are vastly underestimated. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, there is little to no accurate tracking of heat deaths.  In 2022, a groundbreaking study found that approximately 70,000 people died in Europe due to the summer’s extreme heat. Europe is considered the fastest warming inhabited continent, and many countries lack common cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, in older buildings.   

Additionally, the burden of heat is not often shared equally. In India after recent heatwaves, schools closed, agricultural supply chains were disrupted, and workers lost significant income. According to a recent report by the UN, the rising temperatures in India will reduce daily working hours by at least 5.8 percent by 2030. Loss of economic opportunity also acutely impacts women and girls. 

 
What Experts Can Do to Respond and Save Lives 

Just like with a hurricane or earthquake, the world’s most vulnerable cities need stronger preparation and mitigation measures to prevent and reduce severe health impacts. First and foremost, the rapid phaseout of fossil fuels is the most critical step to take to reduce harm.  

Second, if scientists and health experts begin to treat extreme heat like other disasters, the public will be equipped with more tools to take the proper steps to help prepare for it. Early warning systems remain as one of the most effective ways to keep people safe, and countries with “limited early warning systems” are experiencing heat-related deaths at a rate eight times higher than countries that have comprehensive warning services. 

In the US, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and NWS recently created a new scale that helps the public gauge health risks associated with extreme heat. HeatRisk considers several factors, such as time of year and length of heatwave, and models where elevated risks exist to help leaders better communicate on a clear scale of 1-4.  

Scientists and health experts can also help the public better understand what to do once a warning about elevated risk occurs, including educating them on action steps like:  

• Having a plan to acclimatize your body safely over time by gradually increasing activity outdoors,  
• Staying in cool environments, 
• Hydrating quickly and drinking electrolytes, when possible, 
• Removing restrictive layers and wearing light layers, 
• Taking a cold shower or bath when overheated, 
• Avoiding alcohol and caffeine, and 
• Reducing work in the sun. 

Several major cities have also taken to hiring Chief Heat Officers who create Heat Action Plans, or roadmaps to help urban dwellers deal with heat. The World Economic Forum and Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock) also created the Heat Action Platform, a free online resource that provides cities with tools to assess, plan, implement, and evaluate their heat plans.  

Energy supply is also critical to preparations. Given the pressure on the energy grid in many countries, there has been an increase in rolling or prolonged blackouts due to high demand during heatwaves. Air conditioning therefore cannot be seen as the only stable solution to cool down. In just one month in Mexico, for example, over 32 states including Mexico City experienced blackouts. The loss of power can lead to life-threatening situations for people with disabilities, health conditions, and older adults. In the mid- to long-term, in order to reduce harm in many countries, there needs to be major updates to the power grid that are powered by renewable energy and stabilized through weatherizing of buildings for energy efficiency and planting more trees for shade and cool roofs. 

If you want to learn more about how to collaborate with other researchers on scientific issues related to heatwaves, please join the International Science Reserve and RSVP for our upcoming heat webinar at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)’s Science Summit this September.