Using Genomic Sequencing to Treat Disease in the Horn of Africa 

Souad Elmi is an ISR community member and public health microbiologist who works in the National Reference Laboratory at Peltier General Hospital in Djibouti. She has experience in medical laboratory and public health initiatives, including infection control, epidemiology, antimicrobial stewardship, malaria, and tuberculosis (TB).  

She is passionate about using genomic sequencing to identify and treat the complicated diseases that plague her region in the Horn of Africa.

The International Science Reserve spoke to Souad about her goals to achieve health, sustainability, and well-being for all people. 

How did you get started in public health?  

My journey into public health and infection control began with my work as a medical laboratory scientist, where I witnessed the devastating impact of infectious diseases, particularly TB, HIV, which are complicated by antimicrobial resistance. Seeing patients suffer from preventable and treatable illnesses due to gaps in diagnostics and public health interventions motivated me to specialize in public health microbiology. My passion for health equity and disease prevention grew as I realized the urgent need for improved surveillance, diagnostics, and sustainable solutions to control infectious diseases in vulnerable populations, especially in the Horn of Africa. 

What projects are you currently working on?

Currently, I am working on molecular diagnostics related to TB in the National Reference Laboratory at Peltier General Hospital in Djibouti. My research focuses on drug resistance patterns and genomic sequencing to track TB strains and improve treatment strategies. Additionally, I am involved in antimicrobial stewardship initiatives, aiming to combat antibiotic resistance through laboratory-based surveillance and policy recommendations. These projects are crucial in strengthening disease control efforts and informing public health interventions in the region. 

Djibouti has one of the higher rates of tuberculosis in the world, but in recent years, the country has made efforts to reduce that number and close the gap. What have you seen as successful practices on this public health issue?  

Djibouti has made significant progress in TB control through enhanced case detection, rapid molecular diagnostics, and patient-centered treatment approaches. The introduction of GeneXpert technology, which allows for the detection of specific genetic material in a biological sample using a technique called nucleic acid amplification, has improved early detection of drug-resistant TB by reducing the time to acquiring diagnostic results from weeks to hours. Community-based interventions have increased treatment adherence by patients. Strengthening laboratory capacity and integrating TB care with HIV services have also played a vital role in reducing TB incidence. However, investment in genomic surveillance, social support programs, and health system strengthening is essential to further close the gap. 

What more could scientists be doing to work together on persistent public health issues that you study, like malaria and tuberculosis?  

Scientists need to foster greater collaboration in genomic research, data sharing, and interdisciplinary approaches to tackling infectious diseases. Strengthening regional laboratory networks, expanding access to sequencing technologies, and integrating artificial intelligence for disease surveillance can significantly enhance early detection and response efforts. Additionally, partnerships between researchers, policymakers, and local communities are crucial to developing sustainable solutions that address both biomedical and social determinants of health. Investing in capacity-building and mentorship programs will also empower young scientists in resource-limited settings to contribute meaningfully to public health advancements. 

Why did you join the ISR, and why would you encourage others to join too? 

I joined the ISR because I believe in the power of scientific collaboration to address global health crises, particularly in regions facing resource constraints. Being part of an international network allows me to engage with experts from diverse fields, access cutting-edge research, and contribute to global preparedness efforts for emerging diseases. I encourage others to join ISR to collaborate on innovative solutions, share expertise, and strengthen scientific resilience in the face of complex public health challenges. Together, we can drive impactful change and improve health outcomes worldwide. 

Meet ISR’s new Program Manager 

The International Science Reserve (ISR) is pleased to announce that Christopher Moore has joined our team as Program Manager.  

Chris comes to the ISR with 15 years of international leadership experience in the public and private sectors ranging from international development and crisis response at the International Rescue Committee, aiding refugees from the Syrian Civil War, in addition to his service as a Special Operations Intelligence Officer in the United States Air Force and as an international volunteer in the Ukraine conflict.   

We recently spoke with Chris about his hopes and goals for the ISR in the next few years.  

Why does the world need the International Science Reserve at this moment?  

As the complexity and quantity of crises around the world increase, new challenges will emerge that will require continuous learning and adaptation to address them. Many governments and institutions lack the capacity or expertise to prepare and address all possible scenarios—especially crises that may be unforeseen. The ISR can help address this challenge by tapping into a deep bench of scientists on an as-needed basis without the cost and complexity that would arise if each institution or government tried to address all possible crisis scenarios with their own staff.  

No one institution can be everywhere, but via the ISR, institutions can be connected to ISR’s community of scientists who are ready around the globe and eager to be of assistance when the world needs their expertise.  The world needs the ISR to help create those relationships and foster a community of practice around continuous learning and preparation across disciplines and borders. 

What lessons will you bring from your prior work to help train scientists to act when a major, cross-border emergency hits? 

In any crisis, the time it takes to respond is the most critical factor in saving lives and reducing harm. When dealing with disasters, there are also snowball effects. If a situation becomes not just linearly worse, but exponentially worse, problems become intractable. Especially if problems are not addressed before a tipping point. Anything that can be done to shorten the response window during a crisis is worth resolving before a crisis happens.   For example, during the pandemic, governments delayed evidence-based mitigation efforts, such as reducing travel. This, in turn, allowed the pathogen to spread rapidly around the globe when it may have been possible to curtail its spread to a particular region. 

I have learned that preparedness exercises that teach you the basic skills of addressing a disaster become invaluable when a crisis hits. Even simple things like decision trees, templates, checklists, pre-identified groups and communication channels, and pre-existing relationships with institutions and practitioners can be invaluable in high stress and high stakes situations. 

Given the volatile nature of social media and online dialogue lately, what positive role can the ISR play in bringing scientists together online to collaborate in the ISR’s Digital Hub? 

Having a separate discussion environment for scientists to collaborate with each other can mitigate the volatility of other platforms and help them focus on the important tasks at hand. Part of fostering a focused crisis response community is making sure that everyone participating is there for the same goal: to learn and share resources. 

Further, given how easy it is to misinterpret complex data or draw conclusions from scientific studies, and the difficulty all institutions have with navigating the mass media environment, our network of scientists will likely find it more effective to collaborate amongst themselves. This is important before they address the wider public in a crisis scenario where it becomes even more important to practice good communication and establish trust that may be difficult to recover once a misinterpretation or misinformation has traveled around the world. 

What are your hopes and goals for the International Science Reserve in 2-3 years? 

My hope is for ISR to grow not only its network of scientists, but also its relationships with private and public institutions, so that no matter where in the world a crisis develops, we are ready to help via our access to the top minds and resources everywhere. Since we are relatively new, my goal is to develop a community of practice among the world’s scientists, with a library of best practices, case studies, realistic scenarios, planning exercises, and “serious games.” We want to become a go-to resource when a crisis requires scientific expertise. 

Scientists and experts can help prepare for record shattering heatwaves

Last year, the world shattered a record we never should have hit: our warmest year ever.  In response, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres remarked that we are in an “era of global boiling,” as he called for swift action on human-induced climate change.  So far in 2024, global temperatures have continued to break monthly records as prolonged heatwaves are impacting millions of people worldwide, from India to Mexico. 

Researchers from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also found that for the average person on Earth, there would be 26 additional days of extreme heat this year, compared to if climate change was not happening. In certain regions of the world, that number reaches as high as an extra 120 days.  

Urban residents, who represent more than 55% of the world’s population, are particularly at risk from these warmer temperatures due to urban heat islands (UHIs), which occur when a city’s infrastructure, like roads, parking lots, and rooftops, absorb and remit heat more than natural landscapes like forests. In effect, UHI makes urban environments hotter than rural locations. 

The greenhouse gas emissions that humans have already emitted into the atmosphere means that extreme heat is not going away anytime soon, even if we rapidly reach climate targets and zero emissions. That’s why, as a network of scientists and experts concerned about crisis, we can be thinking of new ways to collaborate to inform, prepare, and reduce harm to humans and ecological systems during extreme heat waves.  

The Limits of Heat on the Human Body 

Climate change is already affecting human health. There are risks to human bodies from extreme heat, particularly for residents in cities, and within communities that are more vulnerable to its adverse impacts.  Extreme heat is more dangerous for children, older adults, and outdoor workers – particularly those who do not have labor protections to keep them safe. 

Of particular concern to human health is when heat and humidity remain high in combination, especially at night. It becomes difficult for the body to rest, relax, and stabilize – and that can put the body under significant stress.  

More and more experts are calling for decisionmakers to gauge upcoming risks to the public by using a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) reading versus temperature alone. WBGT is measured through temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover. Tropical and coastline cities, for example, are already reaching critical “wet bulb” temperatures, where the human body cannot cool down through its normal sweating process because sweat is not able to evaporate in high humidity. Dry heat is cooler for the body, for this reason. 

Experts define 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) as the upper limit of WGBT for young and healthy people. During India’s recent heatwave, the WGBT reached at least 100 degrees (37.8 degrees Celsius), making the chances of heat exhaustion, stroke, and even death much higher for vulnerable populations. 

Cities in China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, the Arabian Peninsula, and the African Sahel are among the highest risk zones for dangerous levels of WGBT.  Jacobabad, Pakistan is often called one of the hottest cities on earth and has experienced at least four extreme wet bulb events in recent years. Many cities lack the infrastructure or resources to deal with extreme heat, in some cases because in the past they did not need it. 

Understanding the Toll of Extreme Heat 

Unlike hurricanes, earthquakes, or tornadoes, heat disasters often go unseen by decisionmakers because the public health impacts often happen inside homes or go undiagnosed by health professionals as heat related.  

In the US, the National Weather Service (NWS) cites that heat has been the deadliest form of extreme weather over the last decade. But many researchers believe current counts of heat illnesses death are vastly underestimated. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, there is little to no accurate tracking of heat deaths.  In 2022, a groundbreaking study found that approximately 70,000 people died in Europe due to the summer’s extreme heat. Europe is considered the fastest warming inhabited continent, and many countries lack common cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, in older buildings.   

Additionally, the burden of heat is not often shared equally. In India after recent heatwaves, schools closed, agricultural supply chains were disrupted, and workers lost significant income. According to a recent report by the UN, the rising temperatures in India will reduce daily working hours by at least 5.8 percent by 2030. Loss of economic opportunity also acutely impacts women and girls. 

 
What Experts Can Do to Respond and Save Lives 

Just like with a hurricane or earthquake, the world’s most vulnerable cities need stronger preparation and mitigation measures to prevent and reduce severe health impacts. First and foremost, the rapid phaseout of fossil fuels is the most critical step to take to reduce harm.  

Second, if scientists and health experts begin to treat extreme heat like other disasters, the public will be equipped with more tools to take the proper steps to help prepare for it. Early warning systems remain as one of the most effective ways to keep people safe, and countries with “limited early warning systems” are experiencing heat-related deaths at a rate eight times higher than countries that have comprehensive warning services. 

In the US, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and NWS recently created a new scale that helps the public gauge health risks associated with extreme heat. HeatRisk considers several factors, such as time of year and length of heatwave, and models where elevated risks exist to help leaders better communicate on a clear scale of 1-4.  

Scientists and health experts can also help the public better understand what to do once a warning about elevated risk occurs, including educating them on action steps like:  

• Having a plan to acclimatize your body safely over time by gradually increasing activity outdoors,  
• Staying in cool environments, 
• Hydrating quickly and drinking electrolytes, when possible, 
• Removing restrictive layers and wearing light layers, 
• Taking a cold shower or bath when overheated, 
• Avoiding alcohol and caffeine, and 
• Reducing work in the sun. 

Several major cities have also taken to hiring Chief Heat Officers who create Heat Action Plans, or roadmaps to help urban dwellers deal with heat. The World Economic Forum and Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock) also created the Heat Action Platform, a free online resource that provides cities with tools to assess, plan, implement, and evaluate their heat plans.  

Energy supply is also critical to preparations. Given the pressure on the energy grid in many countries, there has been an increase in rolling or prolonged blackouts due to high demand during heatwaves. Air conditioning therefore cannot be seen as the only stable solution to cool down. In just one month in Mexico, for example, over 32 states including Mexico City experienced blackouts. The loss of power can lead to life-threatening situations for people with disabilities, health conditions, and older adults. In the mid- to long-term, in order to reduce harm in many countries, there needs to be major updates to the power grid that are powered by renewable energy and stabilized through weatherizing of buildings for energy efficiency and planting more trees for shade and cool roofs. 

If you want to learn more about how to collaborate with other researchers on scientific issues related to heatwaves, please join the International Science Reserve and RSVP for our upcoming heat webinar at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)’s Science Summit this September. 

Combining climate data with local knowledge for disaster preparedness   

Abiola I. Agnontcheme is an environmental sustainability expert from Republic of Benin. He currently leads as the Country Director for Ecoclimate Vision Benin, which is a team of 40 national representatives with different backgrounds. Ecoclimate Benin partners with governments, businesses, and civil society organizations to collectively address the challenges of climate change worldwide.  

He also works to translate climate change information from reputable sources into various languages spoken across the Global South. By providing localized content, Abiola can ensure that more people can access climate information in a language they understand, fostering greater awareness, engagement and contributing to community resilience. 
 
Abiola recently spoke to the International Science Reserve about environmental risk management in the Global South, and how the ISR can be useful for increased cross-border collaboration on crisis.  

You take climate data and information and translate it to Global South audiences. Can you tell us more about that process?   

The information we share is sourced from reputable organizations, such as the UN Environmental Program (UNEP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCC).   The information in English is shared via a Country WhatsApp Group which is translated in respective local languages. We shared quantitative and qualitative scientific data via community platforms and media to make it accessible to farmers, producers, and particularly vulnerable communities on the frontline of climate change impacts. We have also reached out online to our audience through social media sites like LinkedIn, Facebook and WhatsApp Group. 
 

What are some of the challenges of not having localized and translated scientific data and information on climate change? 

Ecoclimate Vision Benin works with more than 30 communities and partners in Benin. We do not always have the adequate vocabulary or specific words in local languages to make concepts clear for vulnerable communities within Ecoclimate Vision’s network. “Climate change,” for example, does not have an equivalent phrase when we are translating into a local language called Fongbe. The community who speaks Fongbe lives in southern Benin near River Oueme and many work in agriculture and fishing. Both industries are affected by the climate crisis.   
 

Can you share more about your plans for community-based disaster risk reduction with governments, businesses and civil society?  

We intend to collaborate with governments, businesses, and civil society organizations to design and implement climate change mitigation and adaptation projects. We are interested in flood resilience building and preparedness for our community which is the most frequently impacted by disasters in Benin; causing disruption within the community social system and disturbing livelihoods.
  

Why is it important to you do work with others outside your own discipline, country or region when it comes to disaster risk reduction?  

Life is a learning process. I need to be open minded in learning new approaches that could be helpful for our vulnerable communities to sustain their livelihoods and continue supplying food and natural resources to our cities and markets. It’s beneficial to work with others to learn and gain expertise to use when disaster strikes in the world.  Seasoned and well-prepared scientists can provide the meaningful expertise needed before and during a time of disaster. 

Why did you join the International Science Reserve, and why would you encourage others to join? 

I joined the ISR for the benefit of my country and community. We are one of the countries that is most exposed geographically to adverse climatic events, like flooding. which has caused long-term trauma; and disrupted food supply chains and environmental services. I also wanted to build my knowledge and expand my network on disasters to be prepared in advance. I would like to encourage others from any scientific sector in my region to join to learn and be useful for our community. The more people are prepared, the less harmful impacts there will be. 

This ISR scientist uses e-noses to sniff out disasters before they happen 

Nazeli Ter-Petrosyan is a data scientist and researcher from Armenia, researching artificial olfactory systems and biomedical image interpolation. She is a founding member and AI Developer at Wearify, a fashion-tech startup, and a data scientist at Opply, a food-tech startup optimizing the supply chain.  As a TEDx speaker, young member of the New York Academy of Sciences, and a dedicated volunteer, she is passionate about contributing to and building community knowledge in her field.  

Nazeli recently spoke to the International Science Reserve about the role of early career scientists in the initiative, and why she believes others should join her.  

How do you envision using your data skillset and scientific interests to respond to crises? 

One of my research projects focuses on artificial olfactory systems and their applications in various fields, including healthcare, environmental monitoring, and emergency and rescue services. Electronic noses (e-noses) can be used for the rapid detection of illnesses, monitoring emissions from oil and gas plants, and assisting rescue teams in hazardous environments such as fires. By researching this technology, I aim to contribute to developing tools that can support scientists and emergency professionals during crises. 

Another research project I am working on involves biomedical image interpolation. Accurate interpolated images can provide scientists with videos at significantly higher frame rates, enabling the use of tools such as particle tracking for viruses. This can expedite the investigation of new viruses and their spread, ultimately accelerating the development of vaccines. 

As an early-career scientist working in the private sector, what made you want to be part of the International Science Reserve?  

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted our lack of preparedness for efficiently managing a global crisis. When I learned about the ISR’s mission to create a global community of scientists ready to respond to various crises, I wanted to be involved. I believe that the initial response and preparedness are crucial in dealing with crises.  

By participating in simulations and projects, scientists can develop plans for different scenarios, making it easier and faster to implement these plans when an actual crisis occurs. 

How do you hope to contribute to the ISR and crisis response?  

I hope to contribute to the ISR by participating in various exercises and discussions with community members. I am eager to collaborate with them to build new solutions and refine existing technologies that can be helpful during emergencies. In the future, I would also love to help organize and develop crisis response plans. 

Why should others join the ISR, particularly young scientists?   

A major reason to join the ISR is the opportunity to become part of a global network of scientists. The ISR community includes individuals from diverse backgrounds, ages, and career stages, providing a rich environment for growth and learning.  

Interacting with scientists worldwide offers invaluable perspectives and insights. Additionally, participating in ISR’s exercises allows you to deepen your knowledge in your chosen field and refine your critical thinking and rapid-response skills. 

How one Mozambican researcher hopes to mitigate the climate crisis through coffee

Maria Tomas Cossa is a marine biology graduate with a Master’s in Conservation Biology. She is a member of the International Science Reserve and a prominent researcher at Mozambique’s Bazaruto Center for Scientific Studies. 

Currently, she is working on climate change mitigation through her pioneering research on coffee agroforestry systems and looking into the potential to store carbon in the soil. Maria’s commitment to sustainability and problem-solving on climate change is not just a professional pursuit, but also a personal passion.  

Maria recently spoke to our team about why she joined the International Science Reserve, and the role she believes scientists can play in her region to help prepare for climate-related disasters.  

What inspired you to study biology, and specifically climate change mitigation? 

As I grew up in Mozambique, I became increasingly aware of the pressing issues facing our planet, particularly the rapid changes occurring in our climate due to human-induced factors such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and pollution. For example, the average temperatures in Mozambique have increased 1.5 – 2⁰C between 1961 and 2010. With this, we face so many storms nowadays that destroy the coast and ecosystems such as dunes, seagrass, coral reefs and mangroves. The realization that our actions were driving significant shifts in ecosystems, leading to biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, and disruptions in global patterns, deeply troubled me. 

Moreover, the urgency of climate change and its profound implications for future generations. This motivated me to actively seek ways to contribute to mitigation efforts. Whether through research, education, advocacy, or practical interventions, I felt compelled to make a positive impact and help foster a more sustainable relationship between humanity and the planet. 

Tell us a little more about your pioneering research on coffee agroforestry and carbon sequestration.  

In Mozambique, the tropical Afromontane forest of Mount Gorongosa in Gorongosa National Park is home to coffee agroforestry systems that were developed specifically to contribute to agriculture, restoration, and climate change mitigation. In my research, I am working to gain a better understanding of the carbon storage capacity of soils in coffee agroforestry systems, and particularly how planting coffee with native tree species will help develop methods that support these climate benefits.  

Mount Gorongosa contains fragments of natural forest alongside fallow agricultural land and a restoration program using shade-grown coffee. Coffee has been planted under native shade trees since 2014, and as the coffee ages out of production, the land will be left with a well-developed canopy of native species.  

This is the first shade grown coffee project in Mozambique, and before this study, there were no data on carbon stocks on Mount Gorongosa. The main objective of the research was to study the contribution of coffee agroforestry systems on Mount Gorongosa to the soil’s carbon storage. 

What inspired you to join the ISR? Why should more researchers from your region join the ISR?  

I joined with the intention of connecting with other national and international scientists and researchers who have been working towards the conservation of biodiversity. In my country, we lack a lot of data that can help in decision making and being in such a wide network of researchers can open up opportunities for collaboration.

What role can biologists play in helping us all better prepare for and respond to climate-related disasters?  

Biologists can play a multifaceted role in helping better prepare for and respond to climate-related disasters by contributing scientific knowledge, monitoring ecosystems and biodiversity, developing early warning systems, assessing risks and vulnerabilities, and informing policy and management decisions. Through collaborative efforts and a deep understanding of ecological processes, biologists can contribute to building more resilient and sustainable communities in the face of climate change.

What gives you hope or motivation to keep doing your work, given all the challenges we face today on climate change?  

What motivates me is the fact that I know that there is still some hope of reversing the current situation on our planet, although there are many challenges. I have also seen cases of success in changing attitudes and that encourages me a lot.  

For example, here in Mozambique we have mangrove and seagrass restoration projects where communities are the key elements and lead these projects, a large part of the mangrove is being recovered and with that other ecosystem services and various fishing resources that are of extreme importance for the coastal communities. This success story encourages me to continue this fight involving all sectors, from community to government. 

“Did you feel it?” How understanding small earthquakes readies us for big ones

Sarah Minson is a Research Geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program.  Sarah’s research attempts to understand not only how faults slip, but also to understand what we can and cannot determine about earthquake ruptures and how these uncertainties affect our estimates of potential earthquake impacts. She has also studied earthquake early warning systems to determine what kinds of warning are possible, and what kind of accuracy can be achieved. 

Sarah recently joined an ISR webinar about earthquake preparedness, and then spoke to our team about how we can apply lessons from earthquakes across crisis preparedness efforts. 

In early 2024, earthquakes struck Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. How did they fare in terms of being prepared for disaster? 

Japan, Taiwan, and the United States all have high building standards and strong earthquake preparedness programs, which can help mitigate infrastructure damage and reduce casualties, but these are still traumatic events.  Our hearts go out to everyone who was impacted by these earthquakes.   

The Japan and Taiwan earthquakes were much larger magnitude events, causing strong shaking and significant damage.  Both Japan and Taiwan have earthquake early warning systems, although the performance of the systems differed significantly.  Because these earthquakes were located along the coast, causing seafloor deformation, they both led to tsunamis.  There were tsunami warnings and evacuations immediately following each earthquake.  In both events, landslides and rockfalls triggered by the earthquake shaking produced significant damage.  These earthquakes were devastating, and their impacts will be felt for a while, but the high degree of preparedness in both Japan and Taiwan, as well as their earthquake and tsunami warning systems, helped to mitigate the impacts. 

The United States is also highly prepared with earthquake and tsunami warning systems. The New Jersey earthquake was a smaller magnitude event that was onshore. Therefore, it could not trigger a tsunami, so these systems did not come into play. The most significant impact of the New Jersey earthquake was probably how many people felt the shaking.    

One thing of note about the central and eastern United States is that shaking amplitudes decay very slowly with distance from the earthquake compared to the western United States.  This is, in part, because there are so few earthquake faults.  The rock is strong and intact. Thus, a huge region — and a huge number of people — can feel shaking from even a relatively small magnitude earthquake like this one.   
 
After any earthquake, we encourage people to visit our website for earthquake information and to report whether they did (or did not) feel shaking.  These observations are very valuable and help us understand how shaking from earthquakes varies.  We received a record almost 184,000 “Did You Feel It?” reports for the New Jersey earthquake.  It is the largest number of responses to “Did You Feel It?” for a single event since the program began in 1999 and broke the previous record of 140,000 responses for the 2011 M5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake (another eastern U.S. earthquake). 

Can you share more about your research into early warning systems?  

The first thing to know about earthquake early warning is that the name is terrible.  It is not an earthquake warning.  Instead, we monitor earthquakes as their ruptures evolve and warn people (and trigger automated protection systems) before the shaking from the earthquake arrives at their location. 

The most familiar measure of an earthquake is magnitude, which is a single and simple number that literally describes the physical size of an earthquake rupture.  Magnitude is the length of the earthquake rupture, multiplied by the width of the rupture, multiplied by how far one side of the fault slid relative to the other side.  Then the result is converted to a logarithmic scale.   

However, the shaking from an earthquake is highly variable and will not be the same for everyone.  Shaking intensity decreases with distance from the earthquake, but can be amplified or deamplified by the type of soil you are standing on (hard rock or soft soil), your relationship to the dynamic evolution of the earthquake (whether it is rupturing towards you or away from you), and your personal situation (for example, whether you are on the ground floor or top floor of a building).   

The single thing that most affects earthquake early warning accuracy is our ability to forecast what the shaking will be at your location.  But even if our shaking models were perfect, there would still be accuracy and time limitations because earthquakes are not instantaneous: their ruptures evolve over seconds (for small magnitude earthquakes) to minutes (for large magnitude earthquakes).   

If we were to wait for an earthquake to conclude so that we can make our best possible shaking forecast, we would use up all the warning time before the shaking arrived at your location.  So, earthquake early warning must always be to some extent precautionary: we are alerting you to an earthquake in progress that has the potential to continue evolving into something that could cause significant shaking at your location. 

During the ISR’s recent webinar on earthquakes, you spoke about scientists working with structural engineers and building designers to design buildings with earthquake science in mind. Why is cross-sector collaboration important in a crisis?  

The U.S. Geological Survey’s mission is to serve the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth.  One of our most important products is a national seismic hazard model that forecasts the intensity and frequency of earthquake shaking everywhere in the country.  This is the information that can determine to what strength of shaking infrastructure must be resilient.  That is, what level of shaking must a building be able to withstand for it to be safe.  But how safe is safe?  How unlikely and infrequent an earthquake is sufficiently unlikely and infrequent when it comes to earthquake risk?   

These questions must be answered by people and their representatives in conversation with structural engineers and designers, balancing not just earthquake hazard considerations but all sorts of other hazards and societal needs and risks.  What earthquake scientists can and do provide is scientific analysis so that people can make informed decisions. 

You also spoke about planning ahead and prioritizing the safety of people with disabilities during disasters. Can you share your best practices?  

In the webinar, Yuichi Ono, director of the International Research Institute of Disaster Science at Tohoku University, gave a very informative overview of some of the difficulties that were encountered in the aftermath of the January 1, 2024, M7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan earthquake, and the special risks faced by those who are older or disabled.  In the United States, where earthquakes are relatively infrequent and we may not have personal memory of a damaging earthquake, we can look to our recent experiences with other sorts of natural disasters, such as wildfires and hurricanes, to see how evacuations and recovery can be more or less difficult based on people’s individual circumstances and physical abilities. 

One thing that is unusual about earthquakes relative to many other natural disasters is that they do not require evacuation, although tsunamis resulting from earthquakes can require immediate evacuation.  Instead, in the United States where buildings are built to a life safety standard and should not collapse during an earthquake, the protective action that everyone should take when they feel earthquake shaking (or receive an alert from an earthquake early warning system that shaking is imminent) is drop, cover, and hold on to protect themselves from falling or being struck by something.   

This protective action can be adapted to everyone’s individual mobility. The U.S. Geological Survey through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) as well as governmental and non-governmental science, preparedness, and emergency response organizations are all working to make earthquake preparedness accessible to all. 

What steps should you take if you feel an earthquake or get an early warning?  

There are three things I personally would like everyone to know about earthquakes.  One is how to protect yourself.  As we just discussed, if you ever feel shaking or get a warning: drop, cover, and hold on to protect yourself.   

The second thing is that earthquakes are not magic.  Earthquakes obey simple laws of physics: a point on a fault is stressed, it moves, it transfers stress to the surrounding parts of the faults; if those parts of the faults are sufficiently stressed, they move too; and the more parts of the fault that move the larger the earthquake.   

The problem is that we get to observe none of this.  These faults are moving miles underground where we have no direct observations of the stress on the fault or the material of the fault interface or whether it is lubricated by fluids or glued together by small-scale fault structures.  All we can do is observe how the surface of the Earth deforms in response to what is happening at depth and attempt to infer what is happening on the fault.  This is what limits our ability to tell you what is happening on the fault right now, or what will happen in the future.  This is why we cannot predict earthquakes. It is not because we do not understand earthquake physics (we do) and it is not because earthquakes are magic (they are not magic). 

Lastly, I personally would like everyone to know that the largest source of earthquake hazard is not “The Big One” – an infrequent large magnitude earthquake.  The bigger hazard is the medium ones.  While each of these more moderate magnitude earthquakes impact a smaller area (again, magnitude literally comes from the length of an earthquake rupture) and usually have less intense shaking, they sometimes produce strong shaking, and they happen much more frequently than large magnitude earthquakes.   

Why does this matter?  When people focus on The Big One like a M8 earthquake that happens only every few hundred years, they may feel fatalistic: why prepare for something that is so rare and so scary?  But if instead you focus on the more common earthquakes that happen year in and year out, the kinds of earthquake that you might even have lived experience with, the kind of earthquake that you are actually most likely to have to deal with, then you can be confident about being prepared for an earthquake.   

Visit https://www.ready.gov/earthquakes for easy preparedness steps you can take. If you feel shaking, drop, cover and hold on.  Have a plan for your family.  Put your grandma’s dishes somewhere safe so that they do not fall off a shelf in the shaking from a moderate magnitude earthquake.  These things are doable.  These things can keep you and your family (and grandma’s dishes) safe.