Scientists and experts can help prepare for record shattering heatwaves

Last year, the world shattered a record we never should have hit: our warmest year ever.  In response, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres remarked that we are in an “era of global boiling,” as he called for swift action on human-induced climate change.  So far in 2024, global temperatures have continued to break monthly records as prolonged heatwaves are impacting millions of people worldwide, from India to Mexico. 

Researchers from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also found that for the average person on Earth, there would be 26 additional days of extreme heat this year, compared to if climate change was not happening. In certain regions of the world, that number reaches as high as an extra 120 days.  

Urban residents, who represent more than 55% of the world’s population, are particularly at risk from these warmer temperatures due to urban heat islands (UHIs), which occur when a city’s infrastructure, like roads, parking lots, and rooftops, absorb and remit heat more than natural landscapes like forests. In effect, UHI makes urban environments hotter than rural locations. 

The greenhouse gas emissions that humans have already emitted into the atmosphere means that extreme heat is not going away anytime soon, even if we rapidly reach climate targets and zero emissions. That’s why, as a network of scientists and experts concerned about crisis, we can be thinking of new ways to collaborate to inform, prepare, and reduce harm to humans and ecological systems during extreme heat waves.  

The Limits of Heat on the Human Body 

Climate change is already affecting human health. There are risks to human bodies from extreme heat, particularly for residents in cities, and within communities that are more vulnerable to its adverse impacts.  Extreme heat is more dangerous for children, older adults, and outdoor workers – particularly those who do not have labor protections to keep them safe. 

Of particular concern to human health is when heat and humidity remain high in combination, especially at night. It becomes difficult for the body to rest, relax, and stabilize – and that can put the body under significant stress.  

More and more experts are calling for decisionmakers to gauge upcoming risks to the public by using a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) reading versus temperature alone. WBGT is measured through temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover. Tropical and coastline cities, for example, are already reaching critical “wet bulb” temperatures, where the human body cannot cool down through its normal sweating process because sweat is not able to evaporate in high humidity. Dry heat is cooler for the body, for this reason. 

Experts define 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) as the upper limit of WGBT for young and healthy people. During India’s recent heatwave, the WGBT reached at least 100 degrees (37.8 degrees Celsius), making the chances of heat exhaustion, stroke, and even death much higher for vulnerable populations. 

Cities in China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, the Arabian Peninsula, and the African Sahel are among the highest risk zones for dangerous levels of WGBT.  Jacobabad, Pakistan is often called one of the hottest cities on earth and has experienced at least four extreme wet bulb events in recent years. Many cities lack the infrastructure or resources to deal with extreme heat, in some cases because in the past they did not need it. 

Understanding the Toll of Extreme Heat 

Unlike hurricanes, earthquakes, or tornadoes, heat disasters often go unseen by decisionmakers because the public health impacts often happen inside homes or go undiagnosed by health professionals as heat related.  

In the US, the National Weather Service (NWS) cites that heat has been the deadliest form of extreme weather over the last decade. But many researchers believe current counts of heat illnesses death are vastly underestimated. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, there is little to no accurate tracking of heat deaths.  In 2022, a groundbreaking study found that approximately 70,000 people died in Europe due to the summer’s extreme heat. Europe is considered the fastest warming inhabited continent, and many countries lack common cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, in older buildings.   

Additionally, the burden of heat is not often shared equally. In India after recent heatwaves, schools closed, agricultural supply chains were disrupted, and workers lost significant income. According to a recent report by the UN, the rising temperatures in India will reduce daily working hours by at least 5.8 percent by 2030. Loss of economic opportunity also acutely impacts women and girls. 

 
What Experts Can Do to Respond and Save Lives 

Just like with a hurricane or earthquake, the world’s most vulnerable cities need stronger preparation and mitigation measures to prevent and reduce severe health impacts. First and foremost, the rapid phaseout of fossil fuels is the most critical step to take to reduce harm.  

Second, if scientists and health experts begin to treat extreme heat like other disasters, the public will be equipped with more tools to take the proper steps to help prepare for it. Early warning systems remain as one of the most effective ways to keep people safe, and countries with “limited early warning systems” are experiencing heat-related deaths at a rate eight times higher than countries that have comprehensive warning services. 

In the US, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and NWS recently created a new scale that helps the public gauge health risks associated with extreme heat. HeatRisk considers several factors, such as time of year and length of heatwave, and models where elevated risks exist to help leaders better communicate on a clear scale of 1-4.  

Scientists and health experts can also help the public better understand what to do once a warning about elevated risk occurs, including educating them on action steps like:  

• Having a plan to acclimatize your body safely over time by gradually increasing activity outdoors,  
• Staying in cool environments, 
• Hydrating quickly and drinking electrolytes, when possible, 
• Removing restrictive layers and wearing light layers, 
• Taking a cold shower or bath when overheated, 
• Avoiding alcohol and caffeine, and 
• Reducing work in the sun. 

Several major cities have also taken to hiring Chief Heat Officers who create Heat Action Plans, or roadmaps to help urban dwellers deal with heat. The World Economic Forum and Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock) also created the Heat Action Platform, a free online resource that provides cities with tools to assess, plan, implement, and evaluate their heat plans.  

Energy supply is also critical to preparations. Given the pressure on the energy grid in many countries, there has been an increase in rolling or prolonged blackouts due to high demand during heatwaves. Air conditioning therefore cannot be seen as the only stable solution to cool down. In just one month in Mexico, for example, over 32 states including Mexico City experienced blackouts. The loss of power can lead to life-threatening situations for people with disabilities, health conditions, and older adults. In the mid- to long-term, in order to reduce harm in many countries, there needs to be major updates to the power grid that are powered by renewable energy and stabilized through weatherizing of buildings for energy efficiency and planting more trees for shade and cool roofs. 

If you want to learn more about how to collaborate with other researchers on scientific issues related to heatwaves, please join the International Science Reserve and RSVP for our upcoming heat webinar at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)’s Science Summit this September. 

Q&A with Chike Aguh: ISR’s newest Advisory Council Member  

The International Science Reserve is pleased to announce that Chike Aguh, former Chief Innovation Officer at the U.S. Department of Labor, has joined ISR’s Advisory Council. 

Under the Biden administration, he led efforts to use data, emerging technologies such as AI and quantum computing, and innovative practice to advance and protect American workers. We sat down with him to talk about what he learned from previous crisis response experiences and why it’s not a time for business as usual.   

As an advisor to the ISR, you are applying your expertise in data innovation to ensure that scientists worldwide have the resources to prepare for and respond to the next crisis, such as climate-related disasters or the next pandemic. What role do you believe data and innovation can play in crisis response? 

Data and innovative technology or practice are critical to crisis responses, respectively. During the fast-moving times of a crisis, data that can tell us what is happening and what has happened previously can be scarce. Who has access to data can be a life-or-death situation: people or governments who have it will weather the storm and those who don’t will be swept away by it. Whether it is mapping what symptoms people are searching on Google to determine what type and where pandemics may spring up, to analysis of large research data sets to mitigate these crises, data helps increase the confidence interval of the interventions that leaders must take to keep us all safe.  

Whether practice or technology, innovations are also indispensable during a crisis because the general operating procedures generally do not have the scale or speed required to stay ahead of the crisis. Innovations allow us to operate at “the speed of the fight” as my old boss, US Army General Stan McChrystal used to say.   

At ISR, we help researchers connect to emerging technologies and resources for collaboration across borders to address the worst impacts of crises. What are some lessons from your time in the Biden administration that could apply to researchers in ISR’s network?  

The lessons I learned were elegant and devastating in their simplicity. One, even the most cutting-edge technologies are not a replacement for strategy. Leaders must do the hard intellectual work of identifying the key problems and questions to be solved in a crisis. Only then can these technologies be applied intelligently and effectively.  

Two, sociology will overwhelm technology every time.  In the space of collaborative research, we can only achieve the collective brilliance of all involved if we have the goodwill and effective means of working together.   

And three, the most important power of these technologies is to help us think outside the parameters of normal practice and try things we would never attempt in normal times.  We should not simply use these technologies to do the same old things with incrementally better speed or effectiveness, but rather use them to take quantum leaps in impact. 

You once said that for any problem we are solving, “Those problems cannot be solved by any one person, one organization, or one sector alone.” Do you believe that more people are thinking and operating through a lens of collaboration in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis? What more could we do to implement this new way of working within crisis response?  

I do. Some of the greatest successes of the COVID-19 response, from vaccine development, testing innovation, treatment deployment, to the High-Performance Computing Consortium (HPCC) show what is possible when traditional siloes are sublimated for the sake of helping everyone.   

The key question is: how do we make this new collaborative lens not simply a feature of crisis response, but a key part of operating procedure for all of us?  My biggest recommendation is to keep the institutions that we have created like the HPCC running.  Then, they can be applied not simply when responding to crises but can help prevent crises before they ever start.   

ISR pre-positions resources, like high-performance computing, remote sensing, and geospatial models, so that scientists can connect to them quickly across borders to address the worst impacts of a crisis, without a long wait or extensive application.  Why should businesses make data innovations more available to researchers worldwide during crisis? 

When crisis events like COVID-19 occur, we have seen the impact on the economy and how it hits the bottom line of businesses. It is in a company’s best interest to do anything it can to fight and end these crises as quickly as possible, and that means making data and cutting-edge technology available to the scientists who are working on just that.   

Secondly, I also believe that business and business leaders feel a sense of duty to their communities and their countries.  This is a tradition that we have forgotten but one can go back to businesses like Bell Labs, who helped develop critical technologies like radars that helped during WWII.  We need to remember and keep this tradition alive now.  Business and the world will benefit as a result. 

Q&A: Meet ISR’s first Science Community Manager 

Earlier this year, the ISR launched a Beta version of a free, digital hub for the 4,000+ scientists in the ISR network. The ISR Community builds on the learnings from our first readiness exercise in 2022, a test case around wildfires, where we asked scientists to submit proposals for how they would manage a cross-border wildfire crisis and consider what tools and resources they would need.   

In the wildfire test readiness exercise and throughout our ongoing conversations, ISR members were clear about the need for interdisciplinary, cross-geographic collaboration, and for easier and faster ways to engage in preparedness. We heard you. That’s why we built the ISR Community and have been working closely with Beta testers to ensure it is effective across disciplines and regions. A full, network-wide launch is expected in Fall 2023.  

Recently, we sat down with Jadson Jall, the ISR’s first Science Community Manager to learn more about the digital hub’s progress. Jall is a geneticist from Brazil and has a passion for bringing scientists together to unlock the power of scientific collaboration as a key to solving humanity’s greatest challenges.  

Why do you think the global science community needs a network like the ISR now? 

The global science community needs a network like the ISR because we live in a world with many compounding crises, such as pandemics and climate-related disasters. These crises are huge, affecting people and the environment in different countries and regions, and they are complex. That means they need lots of different kinds of responses and resources. So, one country’s scientific capabilities, or a single national science policy, can’t begin to resolve crises at that scale. An open, global network of scientists, such as the ISR, means individuals and institutions can pool resources and solve problems together, leading to faster and more effective responses to crises. Furthermore, the network’s principles, such as bringing together Scientists Without Borders and ensuring fair resource access, promoting collaboration, and including different voices, make it a much-needed platform for the current global scientific community. 

What would you like the ISR’s digital hub to look like a year from now, and how would scientists be using it?  

In my dream world, a year from now, the International Science Reserve (ISR) hub would be a globally recognized and effectively functioning platform facilitating seamless personal connections and collaboration among scientists worldwide. It would have grown beyond its current network, and its resources would be even more diverse and plentiful. Scientists would use the hub to conduct and participate in readiness exercises and explore crisis scenarios, helping them prepare for various kinds and aspects of disasters and emergencies. The hub would also be a place where scientists would know where to go and how to apply to connect to different scientific and technical resources in different situations. Ideally, the hub would have a track record of successful crisis response efforts. That will demonstrate its effectiveness and reinforce its value, most importantly, by having a positive impact. 

Can you share more about how you see early adopters using the online community, and their feedback? What do they want to see more of?  

Active community pioneers – our earliest testers – engaged in discussions on diverse topics, from climate change crisis simulations to challenges in research collaboration. Our testers from varied locations and research backgrounds provided invaluable feedback, helping us to consistently refine our virtual environment to better foster scientific engagement and collaboration. For example, they helped us figure out which formats could work for the ISR’s Readiness Exercises and helped us try out various types of activities and collaborations. During the current Beta phase of the ISR Community, we continue to learn from our early adopters. It is clear that our community is eager to collaborate across borders, and I am doing my best as Community Manager to facilitate these connections and collaborations. 

Why did the ISR choose to use “serious games” as an approach to crisis readiness? And how will the readiness exercises work in the ISR Community? 

The ISR chose to use serious games as part of crisis readiness because it’s a fun way to learn about and improve the decision-making process, so that participants can feel they are undertaking the process themselves. Role-playing puts the participant in the position of learning about the crisis in real time and actively experiencing the dilemmas and decisions of how to respond, rather than learning about it afterward. These scenario-based simulation exercises allow researchers and decision-makers to practice analyzing available, often limited, information and making the best decisions, as quickly as possible.  

Serious games will help members of the ISR Community explore decision making around issue areas such as water resource management, climate change adaptation, weather disasters, public health crises, and urban planning. These games serve as a hands-on and immersive way to understand the complexities and nuances of various crises and try different strategies for dealing with them. 

The ISR’s serious games will be conducted online, in a collaborative, interactive format. These exercises will simulate various real-world crisis scenarios, and participants will devise and implement strategies to manage these crises. The activities are being designed to help participants better understand how resources will be deployed and managed in future crises and explore related decisions, helping to prepare us for scientific work in times of global crisis. 

What kinds of resources are available to researchers in the ISR Community? 

 The ISR Community offers a rich suite of resources to its community of researchers and other stakeholders. They can be organized around two main areas. The first of these consists of specialized scientific resources such as high-performance computing, remote sensing, geospatial-temporal mapping, and databases. The ISR partners with organizations like IBM, UL Solutions, Google, Pfizer, and the National Science Foundation, offering various technical tools, data, and other resources. During a declared crisis, researchers will be able to log on to the ISR Community to gain access to resources like IBM’s Geospatial Discovery Network. 

The other key resource of the ISR Community is our global network of over 4,000 scientists who have come together around a common goal. The ISR Community provides a space for this growing network to prepare, learn, collaborate, and be ready for crises. We will be offering different types of preparedness activities to help facilitate some of the community’s collaborations, and we are also planning special features for the fall based on the interests of the community. 

One last question: why should your fellow scientists join you on the ISR Community?  

I recommend that my fellow scientists join me in the ISR Community for a multitude of reasons, including: 

• Joining is completely free, and you will receive global exposure and appreciation for your contributions to crisis resolution. Being part of the ISR is a unique opportunity to apply your research in a real-world context, contributing to tangible crisis solutions. 
• As a member of the ISR Community, you will be part of a borderless network of experts, allowing for valuable collaborations and exchanges of ideas. It’s also an excellent space for professional development, offering opportunities for knowledge sharing, networking, and building community connections. 
•  Being part of the ISR Community ensures that you stay in the loop, with critical crisis communication updates.  

So, the ISR Community is not only an opportunity to contribute to global crisis resolution but also a chance to grow professionally and expand our scientific horizons. 

Using data to protect food systems from climate impacts

The world has enough food to feed everyone, yet the World Food Programme estimates that 345 million people around the world remain acutely food insecure in 2023.  

Potentially further escalating this inequity, climate shocks are increasing the risks to agricultural yields. Heavy rainfall, droughts, and heatwaves can cause crop failures; climate and environmental pressures can decimate insect populations and microorganisms vital to plants and soil or let new crop pests or diseases emerge. Combined with a globalized distribution system and geopolitics, food system disasters are a compound problem.  

To plan for or reduce the impact of these catastrophes, a variety of datasets, modeling, and analytical tools will be key, including observational data, remote sensing, geospatial mapping, and satellite imagery.  

The International Science Reserve convened an expert panel from nonprofit and corporate perspectives across disciplinary and geographic boundaries to talk about the role of data in preparing for and responding to potential food system crises, as part of the International Science Reserve’s webinar series, Science Unusual: R&D for Global Crisis Response. Participants were: 

• Michael Hinge, Senior Economist, ALLFED (Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters) 
• Levente Klein, Research Staff Member, IBM 
• Kyriacos M. Koupparis, Head, Hunger Monitoring Unit, United Nations World Food Programme 
• Kay Sun, Senior Scientist, Mondelez International 
• Vaishnavi Chandrashekhar, Climate and Environmental Journalist, panel moderator 

Here are the top takeaways from the discussion: 

Participants agreed about the urgent priority to get accurate data about what’s happening with food systems, weather, and climate patterns: 

The information needs to include a wide range of data inputs to make sure it includes the “ground-truthing” from sources where people are seeing the most immediate impacts.  

And in turn that the information, modeling and predictions should be made available to the communities who are most affected.

The panelists talked about climate impacts on specific food crop examples and ways that data-based planning can help deal with those impacts with alternative food sources or adapting agricultural cultivation methods.   

Visit our events page to watch the full webinar.